UK misses GDP forecast – BorneoPost Online | Borneo , Malaysia, Sarawak Daily News

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UK misses GDP forecast – BorneoPost Online | Borneo , Malaysia, Sarawak Daily News

Fundamental outlook

UK misses its GDP forecast while business investments flattened. The US jobless claims improved amid growing existing home sales. The eurozone’s inflation came within expectations.

US existing home sale expand 5.38 million after December’s revised 5.56 million. Unemployment claims declined to 222,000 in the week ended February 17.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment grew 17.8 in February, lower than the previous month’s 20.4. German manufacturing index grew to 60.3 in February, matching forecast.

The eurozone’s consumer prices rose 1.3 per cent in January on an annual basis. Core prices, excluding food and energy, grew one per cent from a year ago.

UK’s average earning index gained 2.5 per cent on a quarterly basis ended December. Claimants for jobless benefits dropped 7,200 in January, exceeding expectations. Public sector net borrowing slid 11.6 billion pounds in January after 300 million pounds gains in December.

UK GDP for the fourth quarter (4Q) grew 0.4 per cent, missing estimates. Prelim business investments were flat in 4Q compared to a revised 0.5 per cent gains in the previous quarter.

Technical forecast

US dollar/Japanese yen has been moving in line with expectations. This week, we forecast the trend will still be contained from 105 to 107.50 range without any clear direction, for now. Mixed sentiments are expected as traders are watching the possible change in the dollar trend.

Euro/US dollar has been trading from 1.22 to 1.2550 for past two weeks. This week, we reckoned the trend will be likewise until the movement extends beyond either direction.

Technically, there are no indications on where this trend might lead as the price pattern is forming a triangle formation on the week-chart. Risk is advised if it breaks out of this trend.

British pound/US dollar traded slightly lower in last week pattern. This week, we foresee the resistance will stay firm at 1.41 while the market might behave sideways.

Breaking below 1.38 area will initiate a new selling pressure as traders might abandon their long-view if it breaches this area.

Disclaimer: This article is written for general information only. No liability by the writer, publisher or any third party involved in the distribution of this work. Dar Wong is a registered fund manager in Singapore with 29 years of global trading experiences. You may reach him at dar@pwforex.com.

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